As the world prepared for the COP31 in Antalya, one question should guide our collective efforts: will climate finance finally reach those who need it most? For conflict and fragility-affected countries this is not an abstract policy debate. It is a matter of survival, resilience, and stability.
The upcoming COP31 Presidency has described Antalya as an “Implementation COP” and a “COP of the Future,” focused on translating commitments into action. This is an important and welcome ambition. Yet for conflict and fragility-affected countries, implementation will not be measured by the number of pledges announced or declarations adopted. It will be measured by whether climate finance reaches the communities standing on the frontlines of the climate crisis.
The Climate Justice Gap
The injustice at the heart of the climate crisis remains stark.
Conflict affected countries that are home to 1.5 billion people are paying the highest price for a crisis they did little to create. At the same time, many of these countries are custodians of some of the world’s most important natural assets, including vast forests, biodiversity, and carbon sinks that provide benefits far beyond our borders.
Climate change is not simply an environmental issue; it is a threat multiplier for these countries. Droughts, floods, food insecurity, displacement, and resource pressures have already deepened fragility, undermined livelihoods, and increased the risks of instability. In Somalia, recurrent droughts, erratic rainfall, and conflict have pushed millions toward acute hunger and forced large-scale displacement from rural communities. More than 4 million people have faced crisis levels of food insecurity, while prolonged drought has driven thousands from their homes in search of water, food, and livelihoods. In South Sudan, recurrent flooding has displaced more than 100,000 people in recent years, destroyed farmland, worsened hunger, and further strained already vulnerable communities. Similar patterns can be observed across many g7+ countries, where climate shocks are increasingly intersecting with conflict, poverty, and weak institutional capacity. Climate adaptation is therefore not only an environmental imperative; it is also an investment in stability, resilience, and lasting peace. Yet despite this reality, countries facing the greatest climate risks continue to face some of the greatest barriers to accessing climate finance.
From Commitment to Access
The problem is not only that adaptation finance remains insufficient. The problem is that countries with the greatest adaptation needs are often the least able to access available resources. Too often, these countries are judged not by the urgency of their needs but by the complexity of their operating environments.
This must change.
The Paris Agreement already provides the basis for action. Parties have committed to supporting developing countries, strengthening adaptation efforts, and improving access to climate finance, including through simplified procedures and enhanced readiness support. The challenge before COP31 is not to invent new principles but to implement existing commitments.
Three Priorities for COP31
For the g7+, three priorities stand out.
First, climate finance must follow vulnerability, not bankability. Countries facing the highest climate risks should not be disadvantaged because there are harder places in which to operate.
Second, we must invest in the foundations of access. Many conflict affected countries require support long before a project proposal reaches a climate fund. Climate data systems, institutional capacity, coordination mechanisms, and project preparation capabilities are essential building blocks for effective climate action.
The experience of Chad illustrates both the importance and limitations of the current approach. Over several years, Chad worked with the Green Climate Fund to strengthen institutions, improve coordination, and develop an investment pipeline. Yet, like many conflict-affected countries, it risked remaining trapped in a cycle of readiness support without the investments needed to address urgent climate impacts. A breakthrough came in 2026 when GCF leadership engaged directly with the Government of Chad, helping unlock a commitment of at least USD 100 million and a long-term partnership. The lesson is clear: readiness is essential, but vulnerable countries must also be supported to move from preparation to implementation.
Third, we must move beyond short-term projects toward long-term resilience pathways. Resilience cannot be built one project at a time. It requires sustained investments in institutions, livelihoods, infrastructure, food systems, and local communities.
Recognizing Fragility in the Climate Agenda
COP31 also presents an opportunity to rethink how vulnerability is understood within the climate process.
The international community rightly recognizes the special circumstances of Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries. Yet fragility and conflict create distinct barriers that deserve equal attention.
A Test for COP31
If Antalya is truly to be an Implementation COP, then implementation must be judged by outcomes, not announcements.
For the g7+, this is not a call for special treatment but for fairness. Climate justice demands that those on the frontlines have a fair chance to adapt, build resilience, and pursue sustainable development. That is the outcome we hope Antalya will deliver.
