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Gefangen in der Eskalationsspirale

Abschreckung soll den Gegner zu Zurückhaltung bewegen – kann aber als Aggression wahrgenommen werden. Gibt es einen Ausweg aus dem Dilemma?
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Das Konstrukt der Abschreckung soll Eskalationen verhindern. In der Realität kann es jedoch leicht passieren, dass das Gegenteil geschieht und ein Konflikt eskaliert. In seinem Beitrag im Journal für Internationale Politik und Gesellschaft setzt sich Johann Ivanov, Entsandter der Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung bei FriEnt, mit diesem Dilemma auseinander.

Am Beispiel der Konfrontation zwischen der NATO und Russland erläutert er, wie Abschreckungsmaßnahmen schlimmstenfalls einen entgegengesetzten Effekt erzielen könnten. Er plädiert dafür, in der sich zunehmend verschärfenden sicherheitspolitischen Lage keine vorschnellen Entscheidungen zu treffen. Die Komplexität der Lage sowie kurzfristige und langfristige Entwicklungen müssten ausreichend reflektiert werden.

References

Gefangen in der Eskalationsspirale

Journal für Internationale Politik und Gesellschaft, 28.11.2024

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